Christian Marazzi
Those who follow what is happening in North Africa and in the Middle East with an eye on financial markets can not but be struck by some similarities but also fundamental differences. For example, the logic of contagion, ie the mimicry that overwhelms any rational expectation. In the financial markets is the information deficit leading economic actors to imitate the Other to define (select / elect) the representative Universal wealth of historical data (which may be the money "general equivalent", or technology stocks, securities subprime the commodities, etc.. in short, the "collective agreements" of Keynesian memory). Thus triggers a contagious movement within the community of investors who, in turn, produces its financial bubble, designed to explode when the process becomes so self to lose any relationship with reality. E 'rationality of irrationality, or "collective rationality" of the market. The revolutionary processes in the era of capitalism Global Financial seem to work under the same logic, but only on the surface. In fact, the infection, the mimetic practice that characterizes the uprisings of the masses North African and Middle Eastern countries, they do not originate from an information deficit, but by its opposite, a information overload that kicks off protests in adjacent regions and not between their different social composition, per capita GDP, inflation rate, unemployment rate, the youth. (See Wealth Management Research, "Global financial markets," UBS, February 24). The vehicle of infection are always, or often, communication technologies, but the direction is opposite: if the financial markets did not self-reference material, reference material in the insurgent movement is the social body. The same information, or its concept, and its mode of delivery, do not lend themselves to easy interpretation. If you read the Chronicles of Maurizio Matteuzzi, the embedded journalist "il manifesto", it would seem that, to prevail, and misinformation, the opacity of the facts and notizie.L 'information and its "excess" is not then the imitation of others, as the financial markets, but the imitation of themselves, their own uniqueness . A singularity full of desire for freedom and autodeterminazione.Di will to live. On the future of the oil market confusion is greatest. On the one hand, all analysts agree that Libya is not the problem: it is true that already 60 per cent of production was frozen, which is equivalent to the loss of 1 .1 percent of world supply of oil, Saudi Saudi Arabia can easily fill a loss of this magnitude. On the other hand, as noted The Economist ("Oil pressure rising," Feb. 26) from the 70s to now, the oil is significantly globalized. For example, the Russia has surpassed Saudi Arabia as the largest producer of crude oil. OPEC's share in world production has fallen from 51 percent in mid-70s to just over 40 percent today. The problem is political, since the spare Capacities , reserves, which are essentially given by the Saudi and Bahrain, which borders Saudi Arabia, where oil production is minimal, however, pass on 18 percent of global crude. No coincidence that last week the Saudi king was quick to announce the release of 36 billion dollars to its citizens! Therefore, the forecasts are very risky. You go from 120 to 220 U.S. dollars per barrel of Brent , although most expect in the medium term (?) a return to $ 100 Keep in mind that, according to an estimate "of thumb" that circulates among economists, a sustained increase (for the next two years) of 10 per cent of price of oil means, on average, a reduction by half a percent of global GDP. In the U.S., advanced economy where outsourcing has led to a sharp drop of oil consumption per unit of output compared to the years of Fordism, the same 10 percent of the price increase results in a reduction of 0.2 percent of GDP and a 0.1 percent increase in unemployment ( Financial Times, "Oil price surge puts fragile U.S. recovery at risk, "Feb. 25).
In any event, relying on predictive models is of little use (do not work in times of political crisis). It 'very likely that a shock in the oil markets have the same effect of European sovereign debt crisis of last year, so: loss of confidence in financial markets, falling stock prices, return of the recession. And, as happened last year, the temptation to boost quantitative easing, the creation of money by the Federal Reserve. Only now there is the risk of inflation. Or better: an increase in oil prices, distracting the consumption of other goods, creating a schizophrenic situation: on the one hand increase gasoline prices (and no one knows for how long), on the other basket of goods on which it is measured inflation (core inflation ) remains stationary, at least until inflation expectations not trigger a process of self-fulfilling prophecy , forcing the Fed to intervene with the increase in interest rates. The management of inflation, in short, is a real dilemma for the monetary authorities, partly because wage demands would be difficult to contain despite high rates of unemployment. The situation is even worse in Europe and in emerging countries is not better (higher energy consumption per unit of product). We would expect a dynamic like this: wage struggles and struggles against the social pension income on oil. Virtues of the commons, the commons !
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